Hello backcountry skiers and riders!  This is Steve Karkanen with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for Friday February 3, 2012.

Moderate avalanche danger means there is heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features where natural avalanches are unlikely but human triggered avalanches still possible. Small avalanches are possible in specific areas and large avalanches in isolated areas.

Low avalanche danger never means NO avalanche danger. Areas below 6000 feet have either had an opportunity to settle out and adjust to the weight of the most recent snowfalls or simply don’t have enough snow to be a problem.

Avalanche Accident

An avalanche accident claimed the life of a backcountry skier Wednesday in the Jewel Basin located in the northern Swan Range northeast of Bigfork, MT.  Preliminary reports state that a large cornice collapsed under the victim then triggered a large avalanche as it rolled dowslope.  Avalanche specialists with Glacier Country Avalanche Center are investigating the accident and will post details on their website glacieravalanche.org as they complete their investigation.  Our thoughts and prayers are with the family and friends of the victim.

Weather and Snowpack Analysis

SNOTEL sites throughout the advisory area picked up about an inch of SWE or about 10 inches of snow since Sunday.  Winds were primarily from the SW early in the week but were out of the N-NW Thursday.  This newer snow is heavy and dense so was able to form wind slabs in many ridgetop locations.

This morning the sky is clear and mountain temperatures are in the teens and low 20′s.

Warmer temperatures and rain in many areas up to 6000 feet have helped further settle our snowpack during the week.  Observers near Lost Trail, Hoodoo Meadows, Lookout Pass and in the Rattlesnake all report mostly stable snow conditions with the earlier weaknesses continuing to gain strength.  Skiing and riding conditions have been excellent above the rain line.

The higher terrain in the southern Swan has a lot of variability and the guys at Yurt Ski recommend that skiers and riders pay close attention and dig around a bit before committing to anything steep.

Our northern Mountains above 8000 feet have serious depth hoar 50-70 cm thick at the ground.  The snowpack above this faceted layer is very strong and it doesn’t fail under conventional stability testing but it is something to keep in mind when it snows heavily again or warms up quickly.  A slab avalanche involving the upper newest snow could be enough weight to trigger a much deeper catastrophic slide.  The probability is low of triggering an avalanche involving this layer but the consequences would be severe.

Weather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook

The Missoula Office of the National Weather Service is forecasting a ridge of high pressure to dominate our weather for the next several days.  Mountain temperatures will gradually warm into the 30′s while valley locations remain cold and foggy.  I expect the avalanche conditions to continue to slowly improve during this episode however it will be important to pay close attention to the sun exposed slopes and watch for wet snow avalanches during the peak of afternoon heating.

Clear dry conditions are great for fair weather skiers and riders but not so great for future snow stability.  Expect to see significant surface hoar development the next few days and remember where you see before it gets buried.  This will be our next big concern for stability when it starts snowing again.

Fund Raising Event

Please join us tonight for the premiere showing of the latest Warren Miller film “Like There’s No Tomorrow” at the Wilma Theater.  Doors open at 7PM and the show starts at 8PM.  A portion of all proceeds will benefit our friends group the West Central Montana  Avalanche Foundation.  There will also be a raffle drawing during intermission with several very nice gear, clothing and lift tickets to local resorts being given away.  It’s worth the price of admission just to get a chance to buy raffle tickets for this gear!

Let us know what you see out there.  Your information helps us better inform everyone about avalanche safety.  The life you save may be your own!

I will post the next advisory on Monday, February 5.  Have a safe weekend.

Good Morning! This is Tim Laroche at the West Central Montana Avalanche Center with your backcountry avalanche advisory for Monday, January 30th, 2012.

Weather and Snowpack Analysis

The next storm system is upon us and is favoring the Montana/Idaho border where 3-4 inches of high density snow has fallen overnight in the Hoodoo Pass and Lolo Pass areas. Other locations have picked up an inch so far at 4 am. Winds blew hard yesterday gusting into the mid 30’s at higher elevations out of the west and southwest. Currently, winds are blowing 8-10mph and gusting in the 20’s out of the south. Mountain temperatures are in the low 30’s and it’s snowing.

The high density snow we have received the past week and warming temperatures have helped to consolidate, settle, and strengthen our snowpack. Steve and I toured the Hoodoo Basin area yesterday and found a deep and mostly stable snowpack. Dudley and Elizabeth were in the Rattlesnake Mountains all weekend instructing a level 1 avalanche course and they reported moderate stability scores with no propagations in multiple locations on all aspects. Check out our latest pit profiles here. The persistent weak layers that have been concerning us have gained strength and are starting to break down.

The storm that arrived yesterday is bringing another round of high density snow and wind. The new snow should bond well with the old snow surface, but you will want to pay attention to fresh wind slabs that form near ridgelines on leeward aspects and where gullies and sub-ridges have been cross-loaded. These fresh drifts should be manageable for the most part and will settle out over the next couple of days with the warm temperatures we are experiencing.

We have not been able to get the old, now deeply buried, weak layers to fail consistently recently. Given the variability in our snowpack this season, you will want to dig down and see if these layers exist and how they may react on the slopes that you intend to ride.  You will want to pay particular attention to shallow, steep areas where these weak layers are still present and potentially still reactive.

Weather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook

The current mild and moist weather system will continue through today with falling temperatures this afternoon. Winds will turn to the west and blow in the 20-30mph range. Daytime temperatures will remain in the low to mid 30’s and we should see additional snow accumulations of 3-5 inches. We will see some weaker storms through the course of the week bring a couple of inches of snow at a time until Thursday, when we begin to transition to a high pressure scenario.

I expect the avalanche danger to remain the same this week as we keep getting small bursts of precipitation.

Steve will issue the next advisory on Friday, February 3^rd.

Thank you to all of you that have taken the time to send us your observations. The information you send is very helpful. If you get out and have the time to send us some information about what you are seeing, please use our “submit observation” link on our website or send us a quick note at info@missoulaavalanche.org. This information is invaluable to us and in turn comes back to you in the form of a better forecast.

Make your plans now to enjoy Warren Miller’s latest film “Like There’s No Tomorrow” on Friday February 3^rd at the Wilma. Proceeds help to support the Missoula Avalanche Foundation.

Good Morning! This is Tim Laroche at the West Central Montana Avalanche Center with your backcountry avalanche advisory for Friday, January 27th, 2012.

Weather and Snowpack Analysis

Most advisory area locations picked up 6-14 inches of high density snow (1.5-2.4”SWE)over the past couple of days. The winds blew hard in the 30’s gusting to 60 mostly out of the West and Southwest during the past 2 days. Winds have turned to the Northwest and are now only blowing 2-4mph with some lingering snow showers. Mountain temperatures are in the high teens in most advisory area locations.

The strong winds that accompanied our latest storm formed wind slabs on leeward aspects and terrain features that are sitting on a cold snow interface from Monday nights cold temperatures. These wind drifts are up to 2 feet deep in places and are failing easily in stability tests. These drifts should settle out quickly, but in the meantime conservative decision making is the name of the game. Pay particular attention to convex rollovers and steep open slopes where the slab can release above you. The Snowbowl ski patrol got 12” wind slabs to run easily during avalanche control work on Thursday.

The other concern in our snowpack is the buried persistent weak layers now down 60-80cm with a hard slab resting above. Most stability tests are not getting this layer to react, but when it does, it comes off clean and with a lot of energy. It is difficult to rely on stability tests for a deep hard slab instability, which is why conservative decision making is essential. We got a great report from Downing Mountain Lodge in the Bitterroot…John wrote ”No settling, no obvious signs of instability, no naturals observed but obvious high consequence cycle”.

There is a lot of variability in our snowpack throughout our advisory area this season. We have been finding good stability in some areas and weak stability in others with no real consistencies. Take the time to look for stability weaknesses on the slopes you plan to ski and ride on before committing to a steep open slope.

Weather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook

Northwesterly flow will be present over the Northern Rockies for the next couple of days with light snow showers possible over the mountains. The winds will increase again on Saturday night through Sunday ahead of the next Pacific storm system. Mountain daytime temperatures will be in the mid twenties until Sunday when temperatures will warm into the 30’s with the coming of our next good shot at moisture.

I expect the avalanche danger to decrease once the new storm snow settles out over the next couple of days.

I will issue the next advisory on Monday, January 30^th.

Thank you to all of you that have taken the time to send us your observations. The information you send is very helpful. If you get out and have the time to send us some information about what you are seeing, please use our “submit observation” link on our website or send us a quick note at info@missoulaavalanche.org. This information is invaluable to us and in turn comes back to you in the form of a better forecast.

Make your plans now to enjoy Warren Miller’s latest film “Like There’s No Tomorrow” on Friday February 3^rd at the Wilma. Proceeds help to support the Missoula Avalanche Foundation.

Good morning, this is Dudley Improta with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for January 23, 2012. On slopes above 6000 feet in elevation and steeper than 35 degrees the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. On other terrain in the advisory area steeper than 30 degrees there is MODERATE avalanche danger.

Weather and Snowpack Analysis

After the big dump from last week we continued to receive snow. The rain level went to almost 6000 feet on Saturday and then the temperatures cooled back down. Most of the area received from 8 to 11 inches of snow on Friday and Saturday. Snotel sites indicate the Hoodoo Pass area and the central Bitterroots have received the most snow (hence the most load) since Friday.  Gusty west and southwest winds have loaded and side-loaded slopes throughout the advisory area. The higher, steeper terrain is holding the instabilities right now and is our major concern.

The upper instability in the snowpack, due to temperature differences in last week’s storm, has strengthened. We are, however, still seeing weaknesses from the older, persistent layers of facets and buried surface hoar we have been describing since December. These persistent layers are a tricky avalanche problem. You don’t see the obvious signs of avalanche danger; there is no cracking or collapsing, or recent avalanche activity. Careful evaluation of snowpits along with identification of recently loaded slopes is necessary to avoid avalanche hazard. These are not the avalanche hazards we associate with new storm loads. The likelihood of triggering one of these slabs is moderate; the consequence of triggering one is high.

This video, Steve and I made yesterday, show how weak these older layers are.

Yesterday, Tim and Dave toured near Lolo Pass and found a much more stable snowpack at just above 6000 feet. But, they did observe snow transport on the higher Bitterroot peaks to the south of their location.

Observer Rich Raines got out yesterday also and found one of these persistent weak layers just over 7000 feet on a southeast slope neat Lost Trail Pass. His stability tests were failing much like the test in the video from the Rattlesnakes.

Weather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook

There is a winter weather advisory that ends this morning at 11am. The mountains along the Idaho border should receive most of the snow from this current system. After a short break it looks like widespread and steady precipitation beginning Tuesday night. Temperatures may again be on the warm side with rising snow levels. This means heavier snow with more potential for loading.

I would expect the snow to strengthen ever so slightly the next couple of days; then we will see what the new storm does on Wednesday. These older, weak layers are going to be with us for some time; I urge all winter backcountry users to look carefully for weaknesses in the snowpack and recent loading, due to snowfall and/or wind, before venturing onto or near steep slopes.

Tim will issue the next regular advisory Friday, January 27.

Ski and ride safe!

We have had good response from you on our public observations page. We sincerely appreciate the extra effort; it gives us all more information to work with.

If you get out want to send us quick snow observations please use our public observations form on the home page missoulaavalanche.org or write us at info@missoulaavalanche.org with any observations or questions.

Good morning, this is Dudley Improta with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s avalanche advisory for January 20, 2012.  We are continuing an avalanche warning for West Central Montana. Keep in mind that we have had avalanche accidents in gullies and on steep slopes below 5000 feet during and after heavy snowfall events associated with strong winds.

Weather and Snowpack Analysis

The storm that started Tuesday has put down some impressive amounts of snow. The storm came in cold and then went warm. This density change that occurred during the storm is the weakest part of the snowpack right now. All observers are getting very low scores in stability tests on this weakness. I’m sure many skiers at the local ski areas will tell you the most recent snow is a bit thicker and heavier than the “blower powder” they waited in line for yesterday.

On our tour in the Rattlesnakes yesterday we remotely triggered the slab that sits on this weak layer when we approached a north slope. There was also a large fracture reported on a northeast slope that ran very deep (about 2 feet) and slid on a rime crust that formed on January 7. Using explosives, the Snowbowl patrol triggered deeper slabs Thursday morning than they did on Wednesday morning.

This video we shot yesterday shows the slab formation.  http://youtu.be/rPwr1emXO_M

I got a couple of calls from Carl up at Yurtski in the southern Swan Mountains. They measured 34 inches of snowfall in two days with continuing snow. At one point they measured 6 inches of snow in 2 hours. They are seeing surface movement and getting collapse noises and very low scores with their stability testing. Their weak layer is at that temperature change in the storm we mentioned previously. Needless to say they are sticking to very low angle terrain and doing some serious shoveling around the yurt!

The Lookout Pass and St. Regis Basin area was also looking at over 30 inches of new snow. Observer Dan Frigard was also getting low stability test scores in the storm temperature change. Dan also noted very strong winds over the past couple of days which have loaded lee slopes.

Reports from Lolo Pass and Lost Trail Pass both indicated over 2 feet of snow in the last 3 days with strong winds.

Weather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook

We should see steady precipitation for the next several days. Snow levels may rise Friday causing the potential of rain up to 5000 feet. Any rain on a steep slope will immediately cause the snow to become unstable.

Gusty west and southwest winds will load leeward slopes on Saturday.

This most recent warmer, higher density snow is the type of snow that should settle quickly. Can it settle quicker than the instability of the new loading that is expected? That is the million dollar question. In the next 48 hours I would expect the avalanche danger to drop to CONSIDERABLE. But no promises; I would exercise extreme caution for the immediate future.

I will issue the next advisory Monday, January 23.

A BIG THANK YOU! to those of you who braved the Missoula roads to attend community unite benefiting Missoulaavalanche at the Kettlehouse last Wednesday.

For those of interested in looking at snow profiles from this season we are posting them in a folder of 2012 snow profiles in our photo section.

If you would like send us quick snow observations please use our public observations form on the home page missoulaavalanche.org or write us at info@missoulaavalanche.org with any observations or questions.

On slopes that are steeper than 30 degrees there is HIGH AVALANCHE DANGER in the West Central Montana backcountry. Good afternoon, this is Dudley Improta with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center.

We are issuing an avalanche warning for January 18, 2012.

Weather and Snowpack Analysis

We have received plenty of snow during the last 24 hours and there is more to come. This storm started out very cold and deposited some low density fluff. The snow falling today is a bit heavier with higher density. This is a very unstable situation; warmer, denser snow sitting on top of the lighter, less dense snow. To make things even more interesting we were seeing some failures with stability testing in the upper part of the snowpack before the storm. In addition, Tim and I could get the buried surface hoar layer from December to fail in the Southern Swans over the weekend; albeit with a lot of force. It may be possible to get a very large avalanche if the new snow fails and triggers one of these pre-existing weaknesses.

This morning the Snowbowl Patrol was able to get failures in the snow with explosives and ski-cutting. Some of these avalanches had 12 to 18 inch crowns.

Moderate to high winds have been loading leeward slopes; wind-loaded slopes will be particularly dangerous.

With more snow falling right now and more predicted it is probably prudent to avoid steep slopes in the backcountry for a while. Although rare, we have had avalanche accidents in gullies and slopes below 5000 feet when we have strong winds and heavy snowfall.

Weather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook

The heaviest snowfall is predicted for the next 24 hours. The mountains could receive another 24 to 40 inches of snow by Thursday afternoon. Strong westerly winds will load the lee sides with even more snow. Given these conditions I would expect the avalanche danger to remain HIGH.

I will issue our regular advisory Friday, January 20.

Ski and ride safe!

If you want to send us quick snow observations please use our public observations form on the home page missoulaavalanche.org or write us at info@missoulaavalanche.org with any observations or questions.

Under MODERATE avalanche conditions it is possible to trigger small avalanches in specific areas or large avalanches in isolated areas.  These locations are any open  slope steeper than 35 degrees and the higher east to north facing recently wind loaded terrain.

A return to winter conditions with heavy snow will raise concern about the stability of our mountain snowpack.

Hello!  This is Steve Karkanen with the West Central Montana Avalanche Center’s backcountry avalanche advisory for Monday January 16, 2012.

Weather and Snowpack Analysis

Since last Friday high elevation locations were blasted by high west-southwest winds.  The Point Six RAWS station recorded average wind speeds in the 30mph range with gusts to 55mph.  Large snow plumes were evident from many valley locations Saturday as wind slabs formed on the east to north aspects.  The wind dropped off Sunday morning and turned from the northwest.

Only minimal amounts of snow have been recorded by SNOTEL sites this morning and temperatures are in the single digits.

The overall stability continues to improve with time with the primary concern being these recently formed wind slabs.  Although conditions are improving, the structure of this years snowpack will not be able to support a heavy load.

Weather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook

The much anticipated winter storm is about to arrive.  Winter storm watches have been posted for all of western Montana with the first of a series of storms expected Tuesday.  Cold temperatures and an increase in precipitation will be the lead in today then we can expect heavy snow and high winds.

BACKCOUNTRY FORECAST FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 220 PM MST SUN JAN 15 2012

HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT THIS WEEK…

DISCUSSION…SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW. A STRONG AND WET WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW (TOTAL 4-8 FEET) THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

For now we’re taking a wait and see approach to this developing scenario.  There will be two major considerations with this storm.

1. Heavy snowfall will quickly overload the most recent buried surface hoar layer which sits on a fine zipper crust 15-20cm from the surface.
2. The initial storm will be cold then on Thursday a much stronger and warmer system will override cold air in the valleys bringing the possibility of rain to valley locations and a heavy wet snow in the mountains.  This scenario will make conditions very dangerous on any slope steeper than 30 degrees.

The bottom line is that you can expect to see very dangerous avalanche conditions begin to develop as soon as the mountains receive about a foot of snow.  The weather service is forecasting several feet so it should be a no-brainer that it will be dangerous out there.

We will be watching this closely and will update this information as needed.

Dudley will issue the next regular advisory Friday, January 20.

This Wednesday evening the Northside Kettle House is sponsoring a Community Unite Pint Night with the proceeds going to missoulaavalanche.org.  Come on out and celebrate the snow, win some cool prizes and help support our efforts to keep you from getting buried.  See you there!

Good morning, this is Steve Karkanen with the west central Montana avalanche center’s backcountry avalanche advisory for Friday January 13, 2012.

Above 7000 feet on steep wind loaded terrain the avalanche danger is MODERATE, natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible.  On all other backcountry terrain the avalanche danger is LOW, natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely.

If you know where and what to look for, you can probably find a few pockets where the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE, but the overall condition on slopes steeper than 35 degrees is MODERATE.  There are heightened avalanche conditions on terrain features such as steep wind loaded pockets, slope roll-overs and in places where the snowpack is shallow.

Weather and Snowpack Analysis

Mostly mild weather prevailed this week with a short burst of precipitation Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday. SNOTEL sites picked up an average of 6 to 8 inches of new snow that covered a rime crust that was laid down over a broad area last Sunday.

All our observers report a strengthening snowpack with the weakest layer being the interface of the new snow and the rime crust.  The more deeply buried faceted layers we have been describing are continuing to slowly gain strength.  Stability testing yields failures at these layers but only when a great deal of force is applied.  In some specific cases, we do get fracture propagation of the thick slab on wind loaded north aspects and on slope convexities.

There is still enough weakness in the snow structure to be cautious. The avalanche danger will sky rocket the next time it snows heavily.

Weather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook

The Missoula Office of the National Weather Service is forecasting a cold front to move through the area Saturday night. Windy conditions and snow with the front will leave a few inches of snow. Temperatures Sunday will be much cooler with moderate to heavy snow.

A much wetter pattern develops Tuesday through the rest of the week.  Expect a return to winter with a vengeance.  Although the current snowpack conditions are improving over time, a quick heavy load will again tip the balance back into an unstable situation. This next storm will need to be closely monitored.

Expect conditions to remain similar with slow improvement until the area again receives significant snow.

I will issue the next advisory on Martin Luther King Day.

We have been seeing a few excellent reports from many of you.  These are very helpful and help us provide a better avalanche safety product for you.  You can easily submit this information on our website or just send us a quick note at info@missoulaavalanche.org.

On January 18 the Kettlehouse is sponsoring a Community Unite Pint Night with the proceeds benefiting missoulaavalanche.org. Check out our home page for more information.

The avalanche danger below the elevation of 5000 feet is LOW.

Good Morning! This is Tim Laroche at the West Central Montana Avalanche Center with your backcountry avalanche advisory for Monday, January 9th, 2012.

Weather and Snowpack Analysis

Most advisory area locations picked up 1-2 inches of new snow over the weekend. The exception was the southern Mission and Swan mountains where snotel sites reported 5 inches of new snow. Temperatures are ranging in the mid to upper twenties and the winds are light out of the southwest this morning under clear skies.

Steve and I toured around the Saddle Mountain area in the southern Bitterroots yesterday to have a look at what we think is the weakest snowpack in our advisory area. We found a variable snowpack that is showing signs of strengthening, but is still harboring the persistent weak layers of buried surface hoar with weak faceted snow below. These weaknesses are now buried 1-3 feet deep and there is a dense slab sitting in the upper part of the snowpack. We are getting these weak layers to fail in stability tests in some locations, but not others. These same conditions are being reported in other destinations within our advisory area (check out our public observations page). This is what makes things tricky out there right now.

The most likely places you will be able to trigger a slide are just off upper elevation ridgelines that have been wind-loaded and shallow areas within the snowpack on steep, rocky slopes. We received this photo of a skier triggered slide in the Gash Point area this past weekend. Given the variability we are experiencing in our snowpack, this is a good time to be conservative in your decision making in the backcountry.

The snowpack is settling and stability tests are showing some improvement. There are places where you will find soft snow to ski and ride in. This is a good time to enjoy the soft snow on the shaded aspects of lower angle or treed terrain without committing yourself to steep open avalanche prone areas where it will be possible to trigger a slab.

Weather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook

A weather system will drop out of Canada tonight and produce snow amounts in the 5-8 inch range at upper elevations through Tuesday. Winds will be moderate mainly out of the west and northwest while temperatures will be in the 20’s. We will then slide back into a high pressure scenario through the end of the week.

I expect the avalanche danger to increase with the new snow, especially on wind-loaded slopes.

Steve will issue the next advisory on Friday, January 13^th.

Thank you to all of you that have taken the time to send us your observations. If you get out and have the time to send us some information about what you are seeing, please use our “submit observation” link on our website or send us a quick note at info@missoulaavalanche.org. This information is invaluable to us and in turn comes back to you in the form of a better forecast.

Mark your calendars now for our upcoming Pint Night at the north side Kettle House on January 18^th. 5-8pm.

The avalanche danger below the elevation of 5000 feet is LOW.

Good Morning! This is Tim Laroche at the West Central Montana Avalanche Center with your backcountry avalanche advisory for Friday, January 6th, 2012.

Weather and Snowpack Analysis

Yesterday’s storm was a quick hitter that brought more wind than snow. Most snotel sites picked up 1” of new snow, but Hoodoo Pass was the lucky recipient of 6” of fresh snow. The wind has been howling out of the west and southwest the past 2 days in the high 20’s with gusts to 60mph throughout our advisory area. Most snotel sites recorded high temperatures in the low 40’s this past week. Currently winds have calmed and are blowing 8-10mph with gusts to 15 out of the west and northwest. Temperatures are hovering in the high teens and low 20’s and there are bands of snow showers tracking quickly across our area.

After our holiday avalanche cycle that we experienced  last weekend, the warm temperatures this past week have helped to consolidate and strengthen our snowpack. The two buried surface hoar layers we have been talking about are still visible in our snow pits, but we are not getting them to propogate in our stability tests in most places. We received a report yesterday of a natural avalanche on a wind-loaded slope near Lolo Pass. So, although the snowpack is settling and strengthening there are still places where you may find a weak spot to trigger a slide.

There are two places you will want to pay attention when you are out in the mountains this weekend. First, you will want to look for fresh wind drifts that have developed over the past 48 hours near ridge tops on leeward aspects and terrain features. Second, there are still reports of weak faceted snow that Steve talked about in Monday’s advisory (video), near the bottom of our snowpack in some areas. One such area was identified near Lost Trail Pass. This pit profile tells the story. Here you will want to pay attention to any slope that is wind-loaded, steep, and rocky. The potential exists to trigger a slide from a shallow spot that could produce a fracture well above you on the slope.

The snowpack is settling and stability tests are showing improvement (video). There are places where you will find good skiing and riding. Remember to follow avalanche safety protocol, riding one at a time on a slope while carrying a beacon, probe, and shovel.

Weather Forecast and Avalanche Outlook

There is a chance of snow showers through the weekend but only light accumulations are expected as weak high pressure tries to develop. Daytime temperatures will be in the high twenties to low thirties and winds should be fairly light out of the west and southwest.

I expect the avalanche danger to slowly decrease as the weak layers continue to gain strength and until we get our next snow storm.

I will issue the next advisory on Monday, January 9^th.

If you get out and have the time to send us some information about what you are seeing, please use our “submit observation” link on our website or send us a quick note at info@missoulaavalanche.org. This information is invaluable to us and in turn comes back to you in the form of a better forecast.

Avalanche Accident in Flint Creek Range

Date: 2012-01-03
Submitted By: West Central Montana Avalanche Center
Place: Red Lion Area, Flint Creek Range
State: MT
Country: USA
Fatalities: 1
Summary: 2 snowmobilers caught,  1 buried and killed

Avalanche Classification:  SS-AM-D2-R3-0

*** Preliminary Information – Full Report Will Be Posted at a Later Date ***

View report and photos online at: www.missoulaavalanche.org

SYNOPSIS:

On Sunday January 1, 2012, 20 year old Jasen Donald Kellogg from Butte, Montana died in an avalanche accident 7 air miles southeast of Philipsburg, Mt on the Pintlar Ranger District of the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest. The location known locally as Redlions is a popular snowmobile play area located in the Flint Creek range roughly halfway between Philipsburg and Anaconda, MT.

Jasen was riding with a group of friends and family on benchy terrain below Towers Mountain when 2 riders in the group were caught by a large soft-slab avalanche that released on much steeper terrain above them. One of the riders was able to escape the avalanche but Jason was caught and carried an estimated 150-200 feet. He was strained through trees and completely buried (about 2 feet deep) with a foot sticking out of the snow against a small diameter whitebark pine tree. Jason’s father and a third individual who were not caught quickly located Jason and dug him up. He was not breathing and died from his injuries shortly thereafter. CPR efforts were initiated and continued after first responders and Life Flight helicopter personnel arrived on scene.

The second rider was knocked off his sled, partially buried and was able to quickly extricate himself with no injuries.

Descriptive photos can be found on our Documents page and a short video of the Redlion Avalanche can be viewed on our playlist.